BLOOMBERG · 2026-10-07 21:00 UTC

Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading

About half of trading volume on Kalshi prediction market involves longshot bets with 1,000%+ potential returns, with that percentage climbing to 65% in recent weeks as bettors chase big scores. Longshot bets lose 15% on average on Kalshi and 27% on Polymarket after settling, with platform fees up to 7% further eroding returns. Despite longshot bettors putting up only 1% of total money wagered ($600M+ in September alone), these wagers attract sophisticated traders offering 20-1 and 99-1 odds who generate steady profits from the other side.

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